It was eight weeks ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
